Wednesday, July 27, 2011

Tropical Wave About to Become a Depression...or Tropical Storm Don

The strong Tropical Wave that we've been talking about over the Northwest Caribbean for the past few days continues to become better organized today.  According to satellite (above) and radar imagery (below), it appears that a closed circulation may be developing, which would likely boost the system up to at least Tropical Depression status later today.  A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to visit the system this afternoon and take more detailed measurements.  If it finds sufficient wind speeds, the system might be bumped immediately up to Tropical Storm status, in which case the system would be called "Don."

Computer forecast models continue to suggest this system will move toward the Texas coast by early this weekend:

Residents all along the northern Mexico and Texas coasts should monitor the progression of this system over the coming few days.  

We should have a much better handle on how the system is likely to evolve (including the intensity forecast) once the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data are absorbed into the computer forecast models tonight and Thursday morning.

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